The following is a memo from the principal of Academia High School.
"Academia High School should abolish its after-school performing-arts programs and replace them with computer-technology programs. When nearby Techno High School did so last year, total enrollment in all of its after-school activities remained about the same. Moreover, on entering college, many Techno students chose a major directly related to their after-school activities. On the other hand, last year only 10 percent of Academia's graduating seniors chose performing arts as their major field of study in their first year of college, clearly indicating that most students do not have a strong interest in the performing arts."
The author favors eliminating after-school performing arts programs and suggests replacing them with computer-technology related programs. The author compares results from a nearby Techno school as evidence. The author further concludes that most students do not have a strong interest in the performing arts. In the process however the author has made assumptions that are not substantiated, making the conclusion weak.The author observes that many students in Techno chose a major related to computer-technology. Since the after-school activities are also computer-technology related, tha author assumes that many students chose that because of their computer-technology related after-school activities. This may not necessarily be true and their choice of majors maybe unrelated to their after-school activities. For example, if the choice of majors was unchanged after changing of the after-school program, it would indicate that there was no effect of after-school program on the choice of majors.
Further, the reasons students chose their computer-related majors could be due to reasons unrelated to the after-school activities. For example it could be the case that most students that join Techno have parents who are engineers and scientists who influence their decisions. In other words although there appears to be a correlation it is not evident that it is the cause.
Thirdly, the fact that 'many' students in Techno school chose computer-related activities, doesn't necessarily mean that most students would chose it as well. A quantitative idea of the the preferences of students is missing in this argument. For example, many students may just as well have chosen performing arts related activities, which would make the author's grounds for advocacy of change in after-school activities weak.
Finally, even supposing that after-school activities in Techno, played an instrumental role in students deciding their majors, what worked in Techno may not work in Academia. Students may have joined Academia knowing of its performing arts related after-school activities. While most students may not have taken up performing arts for their majors maybe interested in its after school activities for a more rounded education and enrollment maybe adversely affected in Academia.
In summary, it is not clear that the change of after-school programs was the deciding cause for students in Techno chosing their majors. Any number of other factors could have contributed towards this. Mentioning the fact that other facts remained unchanged would lend credence to the argument. Further it is not even clear that the number of students who appear to have been influenced by the after-school activity change in Techno are large enough in number to constitute a disctinct trend. Providing numbers would have helped further that argument. Lastly what worked in Academia may not work in Techno and providing more information on how these two schools are similar may have provided a more compelling argument as to why Techno should be used as a role model in making the decision.