Prompt: "The editor of a local newspaper sent the following memo to the managing editor of the paper. “Three years ago when we surveyed our subscribers, they complained about the quality of the reporting and writing in the paper. Since that time, we have made a concerted effort to hire older, more experienced journalists. According to our most recent survey, these changes have made a vast improvement. Not only has our subscriber base grown by 13%, but they also rated us higher on both reporting and writing. Therefore, it is evident that to continue to increase our readership, we should hire the most experienced journalists we can find, and gradually fire our younger, less experienced reporters."""
The editor of the newspaper makes a series of assumptions in arriving at the conclusions that the paper had improved in quality and readership. He or she owes the improvement directly to the hiring of older and more experienced journalists without adequately justifying it. The editor also goes on to conclude without further substantiation that the less experienced reporters did not contribute to the improvement and that they would not also do so in the future.
The first assumption the editor makes is in the metrics used to judge the paper. It is not clear that the survey of the subscribers three years ago was a statistically accurate one. Did it chose the right sampling of people? Did it use the right geographical locations? These are important to answer so as to attribute importance to the results of the survey. Further the complains of the quality of the reporting and writing could have been specific to a few people, did the survey ask everyone specifically about the quality or were they comments by a few? The editor uses a subsequent rating on reporting and writing and the growth in subscriber base as evidence that the quality has improved. Again elaborating on the statistical method used to obtain these ratings would convince the managing editor that the metrics are to begin with reliable.
Secondly the editor goes on to assume that the older and more experienced journalists were the direct cause for the higher ratings. If for example the ratings had improved even without hiring of older and more experienced journalists, it would indicate that most of the improvement could have been as a result of the existing younger reporters improving speedily on their reporting skills and trying harder. Providing more evidence of this direct correlation between the hiring of more experienced people and objectively comparing the quality of their writing and reporting those of the younger people after the three years would have helped concretize the assumption.
Thirdly, the editor assumes that the subscriber base growth of 13% was directly attributable to quality. Had the subscriber base grown even without improvement in quality, it could have indicated a growth in the local population for example. It may have indicated movement of subscribers from a competing newspaper or an improvement in the marketing of the paper. Hence it is important that the editor isolate the specific reasons for the growth in order to convince the managing editor that the growth was directly correlated to the improvement in quality.
And finally, the editor makes the assumption that the younger, less experienced reporters did not contribute and more importantly will not contribute in future to the quality and growth of the paper. For all we know, they could be learning rapidly on their own or from their more experienced colleagues and could be extremely capable contributors in the future of the paper. An objective evaluation of the work of the young reporters and comparison of the same to their work three years prior would have helped lend support to the conclusion that they needed to be fired.
As can be seen, the editor of the local newspaper could have provided more information and rationalization for relying on the metrics, and to coming to the rather drastic conclusion that the less experienced reporters needed to be fired and that the more experienced journalists were the direct reason for the improvement in readership and quality.
